CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-08-18T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-18T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26563/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3, as well as in STEREO A COR2 difference imagery. This CME overlaps with the CME first seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-08-18T19:48Z. The source of this CME is a C3.0 class flare from AR13409 (~N21W42) and associated filament eruption. The filament appears to have two parts erupt, an initial little arch of filament material related to the start of the flare and a more thick stream of filament material lifting off while the flare is nearing its peak. This is best seen in GOES SUVI 304, but is also visible in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 imagery. There is no obvious arrival across all solar wind parameters.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-22T22:30Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: T2023-08-19 02:40
Radial velocity (km/s):498
Longitude (deg):20
Latitude (deg):49
Half-angular width (deg):33

Notes: Two overlapping CMEs C3 associated with flares and small DSFs modelled as one event. First visible in LASCO C2 18/2012UT. North west directed CME, which appeared to possibly slow in later coronagraph imagery.

Lead Time: 47.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-08-20T22:56Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy